Sandy Cay attack should hasten end of ambiguity in West Philippine Sea

The May 21st water cannon attack by a China Coast Guard ship against Philippine Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) vessels near Sandy Cay represents a dangerous escalation and demonstrates that the time for American strategic ambiguity on the Philippines' claim to Pag-asa (Thitu) Island has long since passed.

This incident—the first time Chinese forces have deployed water cannons against Philippine ships in the Pag-asa Cays—shows that Beijing has already dismantled the status quo the U.S. sought to preserve through decades of deliberate ambiguity in the Spratly Islands.

From an American perspective, this attack exposes the fundamental flaws in a policy designed for a different era. From a Filipino perspective, it is yet another escalation in Beijing's campaign of direct attacks on Philippine national sovereignty and the safety of its people.

The unraveling of strategic ambiguity

For decades, the United States has maintained a policy of strategic ambiguity on sovereignty claims across the broader South China Sea. This approach was intended to preserve a stable status quo while avoiding entanglement in territorial disputes among allies and partners. By neither endorsing nor rejecting specific claims, Washington maintained flexibility and sought to deter unilateral changes to the existing order.

However, the May 21st incident—where Chinese forces attacked civilian researchers collecting sand samples just 1.5 nautical miles from Pag-asa Island—illustrates how China has long since abandoned that order. The attack occurred well within Pag-asa's 12-nautical mile territorial waters, targeting scientists conducting routine marine research, not military personnel.

For Filipinos, this was an attack on civilians doing their jobs in Philippine waters. The researchers aboard the BRP Datu Sanday were conducting legitimate scientific work to support the nation's understanding of its own maritime domain. They deserved protection—not water cannons and intimidation.

China's systematic status quo disruption

The Sandy Cay incident is part of a broader pattern of Chinese aggression that has dramatically intensified since 2023. Beijing's actions now routinely extend beyond non-violent gray-zone operations to include vicious attacks on Filipino government, scientific and fishing vessels.

China is not merely asserting claims—it is actively changing facts on the ground through open coercion and intimidation. The previous status quo is not just dying; it is dead and cremated, with its ashes spread across the West Philippine Sea.

Each of these incidents directly challenges the Philippines' ability to exercise sovereignty over its own territory. China’s aggressions are not merely symbolic—they send a brazen message that while its own claims are “indisputable”, Filipino claims, lives and sovereignty are disposable.

The failure of ambiguity as deterrence

From an American perspective, the May 21st attack exposes three critical policy failures:

• Strategic ambiguity has failed to deter Chinese escalation. Despite repeated U.S. statements condemning Chinese actions and invoking the 2016 arbitral tribunal ruling, Beijing continues to escalate its coercive behavior. 
• American ambiguity undermines alliance credibility. Philippine officials have repeatedly sought clarity on whether U.S. mutual defense commitments extend to disputed features like Pag-asa Island. Vagueness in 1985 may have suited the geopolitics of the region, but in 2025 it weakens deterrence and encourages aggression.
• The policy assumes a static environment that no longer exists. Gray zone deterrence has failed across the broader South China Sea. More imaginative counter gray-zone policies are urgently needed.

The case for selective clarity

The time has come for the United States to abandon strategic ambiguity regarding Philippine-occupied features in favor of selective clarity that strengthens deterrence while avoiding unnecessary provocation.

This approach should include explicit recognition of Philippine administrative control over Pag-asa Island, where the Philippines has maintained a continuous presence for half a century and the Spratly Islands' only true civilian population since the 1990s.

As with the U.S. position favoring Japan's control of the uninhabited Senkaku Islands, this does not require taking sides on ultimate sovereignty but acknowledges existing administrative realities that China is attempting to disrupt through coercion.

A concrete proposal: Joint medical mission to Pag-asa Island

To demonstrate this new approach, Philippine and U.S. military forces should jointly conduct a civic action mission to Pag-asa Island. This mission would focus on medical outreach and civil engineering projects that directly benefit the island’s civilian population of approximately 350 residents.

As with other civic action programs conducted by the U.S. military across the developing world, medical personnel could work alongside their Philippine counterparts to provide health services, dental care, and medical training to residents who have limited access to medical facilities.

Such a mission would be deeply meaningful—not just as a symbol of alliance solidarity, but as concrete assistance to Filipino citizens who have chosen to make their lives on the frontlines of the nation's sovereignty.

Will China claim this as a provocation? Without a doubt. Will other claimants like Vietnam and Taiwan lodge pro-forma protests? Highly likely. These risks, however, are well worth taking in service of a renewed alliance commitment to deterrence.

From ambiguity to clarity

The May 21st attack near Sandy Cay exposes the bankruptcy of strategic ambiguity as a tool for managing South China Sea disputes in 2025. China's systematic campaign to upend the status quo through coercion has rendered American ambiguity not just ineffective but actively harmful to alliance credibility and regional stability.

The Philippines and the United States must recognize that Beijing has for years interpreted ambiguity as opportunity. It’s time to stop allowing ourselves to be paralyzed by the risk of acting in our collective interests, because inaction risks not only the continued erosion of Philippine positions but the discrediting of the alliance framework that has underpinned regional stability for decades.

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Col. Ray Powell is a non-resident fellow of think tank Stratbase Institute. He is also the founder and director of SeaLight, a maritime transparency initiative based in California.